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2018-01-26 17:15 小马过河 admin






Nuclear weapons are a risky defence against cyber attacks

The world has been living with the threat of a nuclear apocalypse since the 1950s. Over the past decade, intelligence experts have increasingly warned about the threat of a catastrophic cyber attack. Now the two fears appear to have merged, with the US on the point of revising its defence policy — to allow the use of nuclear weapons, in retaliation for a devastating cyber attack.自上世纪50年代以来,世界一直面临核灾难的威胁。过去10年,情报专家对发生灾难性网络攻击的威胁越来越多地发出了警告。如今,对这两种威胁的担忧似乎已经合二为一——美国正在修订其国防政策,以允许使用核武器报复毁灭性网络攻击。

The Trump administration has not yet released America’s revised, “Nuclear Posture Review”. But the draft document has leaked to the press. According to the New York Times, it would change US policy to allow the first use of nuclear weapons, in response to “attempts to destroy wide-reaching infrastructure, like a country’s power grid or communications, that would be most vulnerable to cyberweapons”.特朗普(Trump)政府尚未公布美国修订后的《核态势评估报告》(Nuclear Posture Review)。但媒体已经得到了这份文件的草案。据《纽约时报》(New York Time)报道,新战略将调整美国的政策,允许首先使用核武器,以应对“试图破坏国家电网、通信网络等涉及面广且最容易受到网络武器攻击的基础设施的企图”。

Developed nations are now almost completely reliant on the internet and functioning computer systems. That, however, increases their vulnerability to cyber warfare. Security experts lose sleep worrying about a range of nightmarish scenarios — including viruses that shut down transport infrastructure, such as air-traffic control; or that disrupt the operations of banks, causing the financial system to seize up. Among the most common horror scenarios are fears for the vulnerability of power generation and distribution.如今,发达国家几乎完全依赖互联网和正常运行的计算机系统。但这增加了它们面对网络战时的脆弱性。安全专家夜不能假寐,担心出现一系列噩梦般的场景——包括病毒导致空中交通管制等交通基础设施关闭,或者干扰银行运营,致使金融系统崩溃。最常见的恐怖场景包括对发电和输电脆弱性的担忧。

In recent years, there have been some indications that these scenarios are moving from the pages of science fiction into reality. A computer virus that disrupted Britain’s National Health Service last year, seems to have originated in North Korea. As long ago as 2007, operatives in Russia unleashed a “denial-of-service” attack on Estonia, disrupting the operation of the internet there.近年来,有迹象表明,这些情景正从科幻小说的情节变为现实。去年,一种似乎源于朝鲜的电脑病毒给英国国民医疗服务体系(National Health Service)造成了混乱。早在2007年,俄罗斯特工就对爱沙尼亚发动了一次“拒绝服务”(denial of service)攻击,扰乱了该国互联网的正常运行。

A really concerted cyber attack, targeting critical infrastructure, could cause social turmoil and mass casualties. Experts have considered a number of responses to this threat. There are frequent calls for a new international treaty to establish some rules for cyber space. Intelligence agencies have also considered the possibilities for cyber-retaliation — and the balance between offensive and defensive capabilities.针对关键基础设施的一次真正协同的网络攻击,很可能导致社会动荡及大规模人员伤亡。专家们针对这一威胁想出了不少应对之策。国际上常有呼吁,希望签署一项新的国际条约,为网络空间确立相关规则。情报机构也在考虑进行网络报复的可能性——以及进攻与防御能力之间的平衡。

Introducing nuclear weapons into the equation is, however, a new departure. It demonstrates how seriously the US is now taking the threat of cyber warfare; and is clearly designed to massively increase America’s deterrence capacity.然而,将核武器引入这种平衡是一个新的开始。这显示出如今的美国对网络战争的威胁有多么重视;而且显然旨在大幅提高美国的威慑能力。

At the same time, however, the policy shift carries considerable risks. By lowering the bar to the first use of nuclear weapons, it makes nuclear war more thinkable. The dangers of such a move are increased because concerns about nuclear proliferation are mounting — with North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme making rapid progress, and both Pakistan and Russia incorporating the early use of nuclear weapons into their war-fighting plans.但与此同时,这一政策转变伴随着相当大的风险。通过降低首先使用核武器的门槛,美国将使核战争更加有可能发生。此举带来的风险正在增加,因为围绕核扩散的担忧日益加剧——朝鲜的核武器计划正迅速取得进展,巴基斯坦和俄罗斯已将首先使用核武器纳入了各自的作战计划。

Another danger is that any nation contemplating a cyber attack, may now also have to consider efforts to disable an adversary’s nuclear capability. The US, for example, has almost certainly considered whether, in the event of a war, there are cyber or electronic means of taking out North Korea’s nuclear missiles. Other nations will now have to make similar calculations about the US.另一大危险是,如今,任何正在考虑进行网络攻击的国家,或许都不得不考虑如何能让对手的核能力失效。例如,美国几乎肯定考虑过,一旦爆发战争,是否拥有网络或电子手段清除朝鲜的核导弹。其他国家如今也不得不对美国进行类似的算计。



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